National low-carbon strategy and adoption of SNBC 3

The forthcoming adoption of SNBC 3

The National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC) is France’s roadmap for combating climate change. It was first adopted in 2015, then revised in 2020. In 2023, the French government launched the preparation of a SNBC 3, integrating the new European framework of the Fit-for-55 package and the Green Deal. A public consultation was launched at the end of 2024, with the aim of producing a final document by 2025. This timetable is likely to be difficult to meet, however, as the adoption of the PPE 3 (Programmation Pluriannuelle de l’Energie defining the country’s energy policy objectives), which is to feed the SNBC 3 scenarios, is taking much longer than expected.

SNBC 3 is based on the following provisions:

• The aim is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and reduce France’s carbon footprint. Remember that the carbon footprint includes imported emissions, whereas carbon neutrality is assessed on the basis of the national territory.
• A target trajectory to reach this goal.
• Average caps on greenhouse gas emissions for five-year periods, known as carbon budgets. They are adopted by decree.
• Public policy guidelines and monitoring indicators.

SNBC 3: a necessary reassessment of the objectives of the National Low Carbon Strategy

The SNBC 2 sets a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. Since then, the European Union has adopted the Green Deal and its objective of carbon neutrality. As part of this trajectory, France has now set itself a target of reducing its GHG emissions by at least 50% by 2030 compared with 1990.

To meet this new target, France will have to change gear. Until 2030, emissions will have to fall by 5% each year, compared with an average reduction of 2% per year between 2017 and 2022. The carbon budgets of the SNBC 3 will therefore be set in line with this new decarbonization trajectory. As part of the SNBC 3 consultation document, provisional carbon budgets were presented. For all sectors, the additional effort required is significant, particularly for industry, whose greenhouse gas emissions cap for the period 2029-2033 has been reduced by 20%.

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GHG emissions excluding the land sector
(observed and projected, in MtCO2e)

Source: national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions, Citepa, Secten 2024; DGEC modelling (elements presented in the draft SNBC 3 put out to consultation at the end of 2024).

Comparison between the 2nd, 3rd and 4th carbon budgets of the SNBC 2
and a provisional estimate of the 3rd and 4th carbon budgets of SNBC 3 (MtCO2e/year)

Numerous levers to decarbonize industry

Industry accounts for around 17% of national greenhouse gas emissions, a share that is on a downward trend (26% in 1990). Metallurgy, chemicals, non-metallic minerals and building materials alone account for over 70% of the sector’s total emissions. They are also highly concentrated, with 55% of emissions emanating from 50 industrial sites.

The provisional target of the SNBC 3 is to reduce the sector’s GHG emissions to 45MtCO2eqin 2030, compared with just over 62 MtCO2eq in 2024, according to provisional figures from CITEPA.

Levers for reducing emissions in industry

SNBC 3 focuses on supporting industry on the path to decarbonization

The draft SNBC 3 lists a wide range of measures and schemes to support industry on the path to decarbonization. These includeexisting or previously announced tools, such as the France 2030 program, the heat fund, energy saving certificates and support for the production of low-carbon hydrogen. The reform of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), with the phasing-out of free allowances, is also a strong incentive for decarbonization.

In the draft SNBC 3, the government also introduces the “guarantee of a price for decarbonized electricity that is competitive with fossil fuels”. This is a prerequisite for the electrification of applications and the massive use of hydrogen. The mechanism replacing the ARENH (Accès Régulé à l’Electricité Nucléaire Historique – regulated access to historical nuclear electricity), which expires on December 31, 2025, should provide this, as should the reduction of incentives for the use of fossil fuels.